Haastile on the Redlegs...
Breakdown of the Current State of the Cincinnati Reds
“Can They Sustain It?” # 16 The Reds are in first place in the NL Central. I don’t know how to be a fan of a first place team in baseball, it almost feels surreal. I was reminded yesterday that the Reds sat at 26-20 and tied for first place at one point in 2009 and it was the peak of the season. The Reds were swept against the Brewers and quickly fell below the .500 mark and found a home there for the remainder of the season. The question is: unlike 2009 is the early 2010 success sustainable? I think it is. Here’s why: Staying off the DL First of all, I know injuries are part of the game but the Reds health was decimated all season in 2009. Knock on wood, only one Red’s player has landed on DL so far, platoon left-fielder, Chris Dickerson. Even if Dickerson was healthy, Jonny Gomes is on pace to have a career year and would likely take most of the playing time in left-field anyway. The Reds roster was a revolving door in 2009 because of injuries. In 2009, 21 different pitchers took the mound. An even more astounding statistic is the Reds had 13 different players start in the infield (Encarnacion, Francisco, Gonzalez, Hairston, Janish, Castillo, Phillips, Votto, Sutton, Barker, Rosales, Richar, Rolen). It’s clear that the 25 man roster was anything but stable. CUETO’S START Johnny Cueto started the 2009 season on a tear. He had a paltry 2.17 ERA over his first 13 starts. It appeared he was going to cruise to his first all-star game following his buddy Edison Volquez’s lead in 2008. Unfortunately, Johnny C. began to tire. After 3 successful months of pitching, Cueto’s ERA in July and August was over 8. Cueto had pitched winter-ball before the season started and he claimed he simply wore down in the late summer months. He went on the DL with a tired arm. Cueto came back healthy for the final month and posted a very respectable 3.42 ERA. At the ripe age of 23 Cueto finished 11-11 with a 4.41 ERA which is solid considering the disastrous numbers he had in July and August. In 2010 Cueto did not participate in winter-ball to keep from wearing his arm out. Skipping winter-ball in 2010 probably kept him from being as sharp as he was in the beginning of 2009 but will allow him to sustain high production throughout the entire season. If Cueto can duplicate his first-half 2009 numbers throughout a full season, the sky’s the limit. Let’s hope the complete game shutout ignites the fire. HOMER’S FINISH Homer Bailey’s electric fastball landed him on every “top prospect list” for years. He was the future ace for the Reds since he signed out of high school. Homer would put up great numbers in the minor leagues but struggled mightlily in his pro auditions. That was until the end of 2009. Homer Bailey put up disgusting numbers over his last 9 starts. He went 6-1 with an ERA under 2. He showed he has the potential to not only pitch in the big leagues but dominate in the big leagues. The final months of the 2009 season earned him a rotation spot in 2010. Homer has to trust his stuff and throw strikes. Throwing his fastball for strikes has gotten him to the big leagues and it’s what’s to going to keep him here. He did that against the Pirates last week and ended up throwing a complete-game shutout with only 90 pitches. A confidence boost could set Bailey into motion, with Bailey it’s not physical ability it’s mental. If he can figure it out upstairs, like he showed at the end of 2009, the sky’s the limit for him as well. “Cubs Series Notes: Momentum Building” # 14 It were these numbers that had many apprehensive about what type of offensive production the 2010 Reds were capable of. However, the 2010 line-up has not resembled it’s 2009 self. Cincinnati has scored 142 runs so far. The major league average is 137. Another surprise has been the power numbers. The Reds have hit 33 homeruns good for 5th in the NL, one behind the bomb-squad otherwise known as the Philadelphia Phillies. A couple of things to keep in mind: The DL was an all too familiar place to most on the roster in 2009. They were devastated all season by injury after injury, playing a grand total of 9 games with everyone on the opening day starting line-up. Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Edwin Encarnacion, Chris Dickerson, Ramon Hernandez, just to name a few, found a home on the DL. Injuries really limited the team and their numbers in 2009. I also think the Reds upgraded at third with the acquisition of Scott Rolen and at SS with Orlando Cabrera (offensively, not defensively). Drew Stubbs is also an upgrade over Willy Taveras at CF he just hasn’t shown it yet. Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, etc, are a year older and are continuing to improve at the plate. If the offense continues to score runs at an above average clip this team will contend, considering I still think this team’s strength is their pitching. I like Harang’s recent aggressiveness and Cueto’s attempt to control his pitch count. Mike Leake has been a man among boys and Bailey is better than he has shown so far. If Bailey struggles mightily going forward, which I doubt will happen, there is some hard throwing lefty down in Louisville who may be available, I forgot his name. Looking forward, if the Reds can put an above average offense on the field mixed with a starting rotation of Edison Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Aroldis Chapman, Mike Leake, and Homer Bailey all hitting their prime around the same time in 2-3 years... watch out. I think we will see an acceptable winning percentage in the meantime though. “Mets Series Notes” # 13
May 18, 2010
The Central is Weak: Bodes well for Wild Card Chances
The Reds play in what I believe is the worst division in baseball for 2010. ESPN puts out a weekly “Power Ranking” list which ranks MLB teams from first to last like one would see in a NCAA basketball or football top 25 list. This week’s list has the Cubs at 21, the Brewers at 25, the Pirates at 26, and the Astros at 29. The Reds will have plenty of chances at these less-than stellar teams throughout the season. This is especially encouraging for the Reds Wild Card chances. I believe there are two teams that are the class of the National League: The Phillies in the East and the Cardinals in the Central. I don’t want to decide division races in May but I think those two have a good chance of coming up on top. That leaves the West. The West is wide open in my estimation and I think all four teams outside of the D-Backs have a legitimate shot at winning. I think the teams in the West are good but I don’t see any of them as great. I expect the teams in the West to beat each other up pretty good causing a lot of records to sit around .500. That makes for an intriguing division race but it is again good for the Reds wild card chances. The Phillies will win the East but second place is wide open. The Nats currently hold 2nd place, which gives you an idea of how the rest of the division has played so far. I don’t see a great season from the Mets or Marlins but the Braves have the pitching to turn things around in a hurry. They have under-performed so far though, with an 18-19 record.
The Reds have already survived half of the games they will play against the perennial NL Central champs, the Cardinals and we are not even through May. Also encouraging.
With the teams in the West beating each other up, the Reds beating up the lowly NL Central teams not named St. Louis, and no clear 2nd place team behind the Phillies in the East, the Reds chances at the Wild Card look realistic. However, I would have no problem staying in first all year either.
“Johnny's Start, Homer's Finish” # 15
May 14, 2010
There’s reason for excitement in Cincinnati. The Reds rotation have put up silly numbers one through five over the past week: 5-0 record with a 1.20 ERA. The offense hasn’t lagged behind either, putting up a hit-total in the double digits 4 out of 6 games. Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey put up back-to-back complete game shutouts, which hasn’t happened for two pitchers in a Reds uniform in over 20 years. Cueto and Bailey help form a formidable foundation of young Reds starters along with Leake, Volquez and Chapman. Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey have excellent pitch ability. They have the “stuff” to be top of the rotation starters, that’s a fact. The overall numbers would not suggest they are top of the rotation starters at this point in their careers but a.) They are both just 24 years old and b.) They have shown glimpses of ace-like production in 2009.
May 10, 2010
Earlier in the year I said I expected the Reds to win the majority of their games by low-scoring pitching duels. Heading into the season I expected good numbers from a maturing starting five and a bullpen which finished 2nd in the NL in ERA in 2009 while my expectations for the 2010 Reds offense were tempered. In 2009 the offense sputtered at times finishing with 673 runs, well below the league average of 718 runs, and a .394 slugging percentage, which was better than only the Giants, Pirates, and Padres.
LOOKING AHEAD
May 6, 2010
CLUTCH AGAIN
The Reds walk-off with a series win against the New York Mets. This is a familiar theme for this 2010 squad. Statistically, the Redlegs as a whole have gotten off to a slow start. However, they’ve found a way to offset their overall lack of production with coming through in the clutch. The Reds are 4-0 in extra inning games, have won 9 games in their final at-bat, and hit 3 walk-off solo homeruns in this young season.
STUBBS STRUGGLES
Drew Stubbs is down to .174 after going 0-4 with 3 strikeouts in Wednesday’s win. I think Stubbs has a lot to offer in the long run* (see below) and I don’t want to write him off entirely but he has to get out of the lead-off spot. The 2-5 spots (Phillips, Votto, Rolen, and Bruce) are starting to heat up and Stubbs’ lack of production is killing the momentum. The problem is there aren’t any true lead-off hitters outside of Stubbs’ and injured Dickerson but regardless Stubbs’ has to right the ship in the 8 spot.
2008 TAMPA BAY RAYS REMEMBERED
Jonny Gomes compared the Reds’s late inning success to his 2008 Tampa Bay Rays team. Any comparison to that Tampa Bay team is a great thing given the 2008 Rays won 97 games, beat out the Yankees in the AL Central, and went to the World Series. They were also a young team that had overcome a long streak of losing seasons to gain respect all at once. I won’t say the 2010 Reds are the 2008 Rays but I also won’t say it’s out of the question. They do share some similarities being young, talented, and having a decade of sub .500 records. Either way if the Reds get compared to that team at all, even if it’s just for today, they know they are heading in the right direction.
*The reason you don’t want to write Stubbs off is this:
Taking his 2009 finish and 2010 start into account Stubbs would hit 24 home-runs and steal 41 bags if you averaged it over a full 162 game season. If he can up his measly .240 average that’s a pretty impressive line. “Reds Monday Fantasy News and Trends” # 12 1. SP Mike Leake (.400) 2. C Ryan Hanigan (.389) 3. SS Paul Janish (.316) 4. 1B Joey Votto (.287) 5. SP Homer Bailey (.286) If you would have told me Mike Leake, Homer Bailey, Paul Janish, and Ryan Hanigan would make up 4 of the top 5 batting averages on the team a month in I would be nervous to guess the Reds record. The Reds aren’t lighting up the NL leaderboards but they have battled and come through in clutch situations, something that’s a little harder to put a stat on. They have managed to hover around .500 without, let’s be honest, playing good baseball. There are things to get excited about though. The Reds Starting Staff has come full circle. Starting with Aaron Harang’s 6 inning 2 ER win against Houston on 4/27 the Reds have turned in 6 straight quality starts with a combined ERA under 3. The talent has been there all season but the execution hasn’t. I think Homer Bailey in particular is ready to turn the corner and build on his incredible finish to 2009. He’s been around the organization for so long that it feels like he’s a 23-year old veteran but he still exudes potential. There was some worry about his control in his first few starts but over his last two starts he boasts a K/BB rate around 4/1. He leads the team in strikeouts with an impressive average of 8.5 strikeouts per 9 innings. He’s improving rapidly and is pitching much better than his 6.04 ERA indicates. Look for that number to steadily drop as the season progresses. It was Arroyo not Roy-O tonight. The Reds finish off the Astros on Thursday for the sweep. The Reds are back to .500. Roy Oswalt “falls” to 23-2 lifetime against the Reds. If the winless Pirates series two weeks back showed how poorly the Reds can play, the Astros series showed how well the Reds can play. Now if I was an impartial sports reporter I would say Reds fans should expect something in the middle of those two series; but I am not an impartial sports reporter so I won’t say that. So instead I’ll say what we saw in the Astros series is the type of play the Reds are capable of and the type of play we should expect this season. I think we win out… There’s nothing wrong with giving in to April optimism.
May 3, 2010
It’s clear the Reds haven’t played their best baseball as evidenced by this list of top 5 batting averages on the team after a month of baseball:
"April Optimism” # 11
April 29, 2010
“That's More Like It” # 10 Tuesday’s Win in Houston was closer to what Red-country was expecting out of this 2010 team. Aaron Harang turned in a quality start littered with strike-outs and weak pop-outs. The bull-pen resembled it’s 2009 self with back to back perfect innings by Herrera and Massett and 1 hit inning by Cordero. The offense did it’s job by producing 6 runs with a new line-up. I am a fan of the new line-up for a couple of reasons. The biggest switch was moving Orlando Cabrera to the 6 hole and Brandon Phillips to the 2. Phillips' above average speed makes him a serviceable 2-hole hitter, he was a stretch at clean-up. Phillips has struggled at the plate overall but he has taken more walks in 2010. Orlando Cabrera is aggressive so there's not a huge discrepency between his batting average and on-base percentage. Cabrera has already proven he has a knack for the RBI so he I think he is better suited for the 6 hole than the 2 hole. Scott Rolen replaced BP for clean-up. Rolen is not a prototypical clean-up hitter but I like his approach and I expect GABP might put a spike in his power numbers. I still like Votto and Bruce at 3 and 5 respectively. You hear a lot of talk about a team’s “identity.” I’ve heard people say this team lacks an identity. I’ve heard they’re not a power team, they’re not a speedy team, they’re not a defensive team on and on. I don’t buy into that argument. The Yankees don’t have an identity other than they are a dominant team. You wouldn’t say the Yankees are a team built around one thing like pitching, defense, speed, etc because they do it all. I think this team has the capacity to play good baseball regardless of what category people put them in. You put the most talent on the field that you possibly can and let that be your “identity.” I think the Reds have done that and I think there is better baseball to be played in Cincinnati. “Reds Monday Fantasy ” # 10 For today’s Reds Fantasy news and trends I have to take the entire the team into account. The season is only 19 games in so sample size is small and looking too far into individual stats can be silly but the Reds individual stats are astounding. Wrap your head around this statement: Every Reds player in the starting lineup is currently hitting below his career batting average AND every starting pitcher’s 2010 ERA is over his career average ERA. The number on the left is the current stat and the number on the right is the career average.
CURRENT BATTING AVG CAREER BATTING AVG. 1B Joey Votto .288 .308 2B Brandon Phillips .219 .264 3B Scott Rolen .283 .284 SS Orlando Cabrera .239 .274 CF Drew Stubbs .158 .241 LF Jonny Gomes .216 .240 LF Chris Dickerson .244 .279 RF Jay Bruce .215 .238 C Ramon Hernandez .250 .262
Aaron Harang 8.31 4.31 Bronson Arroyo 7.42 4.28 Homer Bailey 7.06 5.61 Johnny Cueto 5.73 4.68 Mike Leake 3.92 (Rookie Season) 3.92 (Rookie Season) I knew the Reds were under-performing but I had no idea to what degree. After a quick look at the individual stats I now think it’s a miracle the Reds are 8-11 and only 3.5 games back. The bad news is pretty much the entire team is playing poorly, the good news is regression to the mean indicates that a huge upswing is likely. “Starting Today” # 8 remarkably it came at the MLB level. I thought it was fitting that rookie Mike Leake was the first starter to get rewarded with a win. He has been the most consistent pitcher while facing the monumental task of learning professional baseball not at Sarasota, Dayton, or Carolina but right in GABP. He had turned in two gritty performances, both quality starts (7ip 3ER or less), prior to Thursday. He managed to pitch into the 7th with 3 earned runs or less again on Thursday. A two run shot in the 7th put his totals at 7 ip 5 ER. manages his pitch count, plays such good defense that Chris Welsh stated he would win a gold glove before his career is over and don't forget he's hitting .500. While the Reds pitching staff search for their groove an unexpected leader may be emerging. (CNATI.com) The Good: The Bad: There have been 55 starting pitchers that have recorded a start in the National League thus far in the season. Ranked in ERA Reds starters look like this: 44- Bronson Arroyo (4.95 ERA) 45- Johnny Cueto (5.06 ERA) 47- Homer Bailey (7.47 ERA) 55 (last) Aaron Harang (8.31 ERA) Team Batting Avg-.236 (12/16 in NL) Team ERA: 6.03- (14/16 in NL) The Ugly:
April 28, 2010
April 26, 2010
Mondays will be designated for Fantasy news and trends for Reds players.
PLAYER
PLAYER
CURRENT ERA
CAREER ERA
April 25, 2010
got picked off three times, one was a pure lack of hustle by Johnny “Be Good” Cueto, scored 0 runs on 4
hits, and Drew Stubbs caught a fly ball and promptly tossed it to a fan on the inning’s 2nd out. Dusty Baker
held a much needed closed-door meeting after the game. I hope it was a verbal butt-kicking, something
this young team probably needed. This team is better than how they’ve been playing but they certainly
aren’t good enough to win without focus and hustle. The Reds pulled out an 8th inning comeback win on
Sunday to win 5-4. Referring to the game and recent play Ramon Hernandez repeatedly said “starting
today” in a post-game interview. Saturday’s embarrassing play and closed-door meeting might have put
the team in a fresh start mentality which would be a great thing given how much they have
underachieved so far.
“Unexpected Leader Emerging” # 8
April 23, 2010
The Reds starting pitching staff tallied their first W on Thursday’s 8-5 victory over the LA Dodgers.
The win's significance doesn't stop there. Mike Leake earned his first career professional win and
Not a flawless performance but an effective one. He gets deep into ballgames, keeps the Reds in it, 
“15 Game Review: The Good, Bad, and Ugly” # 7
April 22, 2010
“Play of Game Belongs to Bruce” # 6
April 21, 2010
The Reds offense took a 5-game losing streak’s worth of frustration out on 2003 First rounder Chad Billingsley
and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Reds offense came alive for 11 runs, which was just enough to beat the Red-
killing Dodgers 11-9. The Dodgers had won 12 of the past 14 games against the Reds. The player and play of the
game belongs Jay Bruce. Jay Bruce hit two homeruns in Sunday’s loss to the Pirates and that may have been just
the confidence boost he needed. Bruce brought some swagger to GABP tonight. In his first plate appearance he
loosely waved his bat in his stance before lacing an RBI double to the wall. Bruce ran down a rocket off of Ronnie
Belliard in the top of the 8th that would have almost certainly scored a go-ahead run for the Dodgers. Most people would have dubbed the 8th inning grab the play of the game but I think Bruce had an even better one. In his young
career, Bruce has had trouble with swinging at pitches out of the zone. Pitchers know that he will likely swing at
marginal pitches, significantly lowering the amount of good looks Bruce get per at bat. Bruce came to bat in the
bottom of the ninth with one out in a 9-9 tie. He worked a 3-2 count off Ramon Troncoso. The pay-off pitch was low.
Barely. If Troncoso did his scouting homework he probably thought a pitch just out of the zone was as good as dead
center with Bruce at that plate. But Bruce calmly watched the ball into Russell Martin’s glove and trotted down to
first. He later scored the go-ahead and game-winning run on a Paul Janish single. A sign that Bruce is seeing the
ball and has brighter times ahead. On a night full of offensive fireworks, I’ll take Bruce’s free pass as play of the
game…
“Monday Reds Fantasy News” # 5
April 19, 2010
Mondays will be designated for Fantasy news and trends for Reds players.
FANTASY BASEBALL: HOW IT WORKS
For the first Monday I will include this brief overview for how fantasy baseball works: ESPN's most
popular fantasy baseball format is a ten team H2H (head to head). Ten "owners" draft 25 players including
12 hitters, 6 starting pitchers, 4 relief pitchers, and three bench players or something close to that
combination. Each team gets matched up to face another team every week and the winner is decided by
what is called a 6X6 (six offensive categories and six pitching categories) scoring system. A team total or
average is created from the following six offensive categories include batting average, RBIs, Runs,
Homeruns, Stolen Bases, and OPS (on base percentage + slugging percentage). Another team total or
average is created from the following six pitching categories: ERA, Strikeouts, WHIP (walks and hits per
inning pitched, Wins, Saves, and Holds. If you carry more than 6 total categories you get a W for the
week. Top 4 teams then play for the championship in a 3 week playoff system.
THIS WEEK'S TREND
Joey Votto is the focus of this week's trend. Joey Votto is the most productive hitter on the Reds and
is already Cincinnati’s highest valued fantasy player according to his 41.4 Average Draft Postion (meaning
on average he was the 41st player taken in fantasy leagues) on ESPN.com. Most fantasy players expected
Votto to hit 25-35 homeruns, drive in some runs, and hit for a high average. What they did not expect is
Votto to help them is the stolen base category. Joey Votto stole 4 bases this week vaulting him to 2nd in
the NL in stolen bases. Votto is now on pace to steal 50 bags this season. Now that won't happen. But
what could happen is Votto could go for 15-20 sbs which could be a real asset for his owners. Votto stole
40 bases over two seasons from 2006 through 2008, proving that his recent thievery is not an aberration.
Expect Votto and the Reds as a whole to keep running the bases in an attempt to jump-start their anemic
offense.
“Blame it on Luck?” # 4
April 17, 2010
Francisco Cordero allows 2 runs in the 9th blowing a 4-3 lead for 4th straight Reds loss. The Reds
were seemingly in control but blown saves are a part of the game and hopefully this is a rare off-
night for Cordero. He’s not the most dominating closer in the game but he has been reliable enough
for the Reds and hopefully this can be chalked up to “one of those nights” and nothing beyond that.
Cueto continued the theme of high pitch counts and early departures for Reds starters but he did
limit the Bucs to three earned runs and kept his team in it. The middle of the order, Cabrera, Votto,
and Phillips, were sharp accounting for all of the Reds hits and runs but the offense as a whole
remains generally unimpressive.
Jay Bruce looks terrible. His swing appears long and slow and he commits to pitches way too early.
He is guessing up there and pitchers know it. He started the season hitting the ball hard but right at
people and was a victim of tough luck. But for the past few games he has been overmatched and
luck hasn’t played any part in his lack of production. In spring training, a lot of people, including
myself said he held the key to the Reds success this season and I hope he gets it together and
sooner rather than later. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Reds let him take him a short tour with the
Louisville Bats if he doesn’t start improving at the plate. Playing a guy everyday with a batting avg.
around .150 is hard to defend no matter how much talent the kid has. Reds fans know he’s young
and we know his potential but isn’t that why players work out the kinks in the minors?
“Leaks in Pittsburgh, Rains in Louisville” # 3
The Reds kicked off a series against their fellow NL Central perennial cellar dweller rival, the Aroldis Chapman’s Lousiville Slugger Field debut got pushed back to this afternoon after a Friday night “A Pair of Aces” # 2
April 16, 2010
Pittsburgh Pirates. The two teams combine for 27 straight losing seasons. Cincinnati has finished
under .500 for nine in a row while Pittsburgh boasts 18 straight losing seasons. The Reds are hoping to
snap that streak in 2010 but nothing is guaranteed. Mike Leake took the ball for the Reds and got
rocked early. He gave up three earned runs in the first two innings. However, as the game wore on, Leake earned his reputation. Leake started to find his groove in the 3rd and 4th and managed to string
together five straight scoreless innings. His final line was seven innings 3 earned runs, 7 hits, 5 walks. Not
the prettiest line but a quality start none the less- something the past four Reds starters had not managed
to get. Leake’s reputation is he's wise beyond his years, savvy, and hard to rattle. It was that reputation that gave him the chance to be the 21st player to skip the minor leagues entirely. Last night Leake never
lost his composure after getting hit hard early, kept battling, stuck to the game-plan, and ended up with a
quality start. Leake also dropped his entire professional batting average to .750 after a 1-2 night. Unfazed.
rain delay. The fans packed into Slugger Field as the rain poured down on the field, a sign that Aroldis has
a General Manager’s favorite attribute, the ability to sell tickets.
April 15, 2010
It was a match-up of “aces” In the final leg of a 4-game series between the Marlins and Reds.
I’m afraid there was only one ace on the field and that was Josh Johnson of Florida. Johnson is
coming off a breakout year in 09 when he went 15-5 with a 3.23 ERA. Tonight he threw six
innings of one run ball with 10 strikeouts in true ace fashion. As for Harang, I like the term
opening-day starter instead of ace. The Reds opening day starter gave up 10 hits and 8 runs in 4
innings to an underrated Marlins offense. As much as I root for him to have a comeback year I
refuse to call him the Reds ace coming off a 6-14 record in 2009 and 6-17 record in 2008. I see
him as more of a solid back of the rotation innings-eater than a number one. The problem is
Aaron Harang isn’t getting paid like a back of the rotation innings eater. His 2010 salary is all of 14
million dollars. That should certainly buy more than 8 runs in 14 innings. 2010 is Harang’s last
guaranteed year with Reds but he has a 14 million dollar club option with a 2 million buyout for
2011. That means if the Reds wish to keep Harang next year it will cost them another 14 mil and
if they choose to part ways they can buy him out for 2 mil. I believe there is zero chance the
Reds pick up that option in 2011 meaning the Reds will have to pay him 2 mil to NOT play-
ultimately meaning Harang is very expendable. Making him even more expendable are two guys
named Aroldis Chapman and Edison Volquez. Edison Volquez is coming off Tommy John Surgery
and should be ready by the All-Star break. Aroldis Chapman is fine-tuning his skills at AAA
Louisville and it shouldn’t take him too long to force his way to the big league club. I hope as
much as anyone Aaron Harang has a huge bounce-back year but I’m betting he will be gone by the
all-star break regardless of his performance. Bronson Arroyo is in a similar situation and is in the
final guaranteed year of contract. He makes just over 10 million in 2010 with a club option for
2011. The difference is Arroyo is coming off back to back 15 win seasons and was one of the best
in all of baseball the 2nd half of last year. He may actually earn his option in 2011 but it will be
interesting to see what the Reds do. We may see a 2011 rotation of:
Volquez/Cueto/Chapman/Leake/Bailey- definitely would be intriguing.
Back to Harang- I predict he gets dealt near the trade deadline for a decent but not elite prospect
as one or both of Edison Volquez and Aroldis Chapman become ready to take the stage. Either
one I would have no problem calling “Ace” rather than Opening Day starter…
Having explained why I think Harang will be traded, I don’t want to give up on his 2010 season so
soon. I know how early it is and I know how important he is to the Reds. For some perspective
on how early it is in the MLB season- 10 MLB games in a baseball season is equivalent to one game
in an NFL season or two games in a NCAA basketball season…
Mike Leake gets the nod tomorrow as the Reds travel to Pittsburgh for a 7:10 start while Aroldis
Chapman makes his Louisville debut at the same time.
Introduction # 1
April 15, 2010
This is my first entry on "Haastile on the Redlegs." It's April and I am optimistic. I think this
team has a real chance to contend but I have said that every year for the last nine, like every
good baseball fan does. We, Reds fans, are (have to be) eternal optimists. So this year, like
every year, is "our year" and I am excited to be a part of it. I will combine the first nine games
into one entry but I will stay up to date from here on. The Reds have played nine games and are 5-
4 and I think I can speak for most fans and say I am plenty pleased with that record given our play
and level of competition. Carpenter and Wainwright is a hell of a way to start a season and it's
not a surprise to anyone we dropped the first two. But since then the team has played gritty
baseball and won 5 of 7. The bats haven't blown anyone away and the pitching has been solid
which is what most expect out of this team on both accounts. I think the middle of the order will
continue to improve and produce runs without relying on the homerun. Surprisingly, a vast
majority of the reds runs so far have come via the longball but this team doesn't have the
firepower to rely on homeruns for an entire season. I imagine/hope will we see more stolen
bases, hit and runs, and get em on, get em over, and get em in baseball for the remainder of the
season. The Reds starting pitching staff has the third lowest ERA in the National League and I
expect they will hover around that area for the remainder of the season. Meaning the Reds
offense won't need four homeruns a game to win but they will have to cut down on strikeouts
(63) and improve their on-base percentage (.309) putting them in the bottom fourth of the
league in both categories. I plan to do this blog by writing my thoughts on a game to game basis-
Should be an exciting season and with a little bit of luck a winning one as well. A couple of lanky
pitchers go tonight with Aaron Harang (0-1 4.50) and the Reds facing Marlins ace Josh Johnson (0-
1 6.30) tonight at 7:10. The Cuban Missle brings "Chapmania" to Louisville tomorrow to play in
front of a sold out crowd...
Upcoming Reds Schedule
| May 14 7:10 | Cardinals at Reds | Aaron Harang vs. Jaime Garcia |
| May 15 7:10 | Cardinals at Reds | Mike Leake vs. Adam Wainwright |
| May 16 7:10 | Cardinals at Reds | Bronson Arroyo vs. Brad Penny |
| May 17 7:10 | Brewers at Reds | Johnny Cueto vs. Dave Bush |
Sports Illustrated: MLB
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